Is Dominic Thiem Back?
I spent last week in Gstaad watching almost every ball that Dominic Thiem hit, from practice to warm up to court-side at his matches. Here is what I think:
Dominic Thiem Comeback Heats Up
Dominic Thiem has not won a title since he lifted the US Open trophy in 2020. Since then he has been through an agonizing journey of injury, recovery, and comebacks.
After losing his first 7(!) matches of his 2022 comeback at both the Challenger and ATP levels, including a deflating performance at the French Open losing 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 to World #74 Hugo Dellien in R1, Thiem has finally found some momentum.
Domi has won 6 matches in the last 3 tournaments he’s played - all on clay. Taking out names like Ruusuvuori, Roberto Bautista-Agut, and Hugo Gaston is a marked improvement since his French Open form.
Is Thiem’s Wrist Fully Healed?
Dominic told media in Gstaad at the Swiss Open that his wrist was “perfectly healed” and that was no longer the issue physically.
Thiem Fans have watched his forehand lack the bite and RPMs that were trademark Thiem for his career pre-injury.
Sitting court-side in Gstaad watching Thiem’s matches, I’ve noticed a significant improvement in the pace, shape and control that he has on that wing. A month or so ago, Thiem seemed unable to hit 3 forehands in a row without missing.
Now, I’ve watched him repeatedly pin opponents with his pace/spin combo and follow that up with multiple quality forehand strikes before finishing off the point with either a forehand or a vintage backhand that draws gasps from the crowd.
The wrist acceleration on the forehand used to be the issue but now he is able to get up the back of the ball enough to get the ball down where he wants… close to the baseline / sideline and out of the opponents reach.
Will Thiem Win Another Major?
What are reasonable expectations for Thiem fans?
When we see him hitting flat back hand winners like this:
it is very hard not to go to “OMFG THIEM IS BACK AND WILL WIN EVERYTHING” mode… but in reality, coming back to the top is very, very hard… ask Andy Murray.
As of July 26th, Dominic Thiem is ranked #199 on the ATP. He will be relying on Wild Cards and Protected Ranking entries to get into the important tournaments until his ranking can get back to where it should be.
I believe Thiem will get back to battling for majors within a year.
He’s much younger than Andy Murray for example, and his physical issues were upper body which (like Novak) should be less detrimental to the long term movement that is so important on court.
He’s not a young player anymore, he will turn 29 after the US Open this year, but I definitely think he can get back to being a dominant force on the ATP Tour Top 10 in the near future, based on what I’ve seen here in Gstaad.
Kitzbuhel starts today for Domi, and he’s headed in the right direction.
Let’s see what he can do.